Indymac Bancorp Inc. said in an SEC filing this morning that it at best expects to break even during the third quarter, while net losses could reach as high as 50 cents per share, or $36.8 million. Bloomberg reports that the revised guidance is well short of analyst expectations, which had originally pegged the Pasadena, Calif.-based lender with earnings of 30 cents per share for the quarter. In its filing, Indymac provided a what it characterized as a “rough” estimate for the third quarter, and said it expects net losses to be driven by a drop in core mortgage production, as well as widening losses on loans sold or held in its portfolio. These items were estimated to have a negative impact on net earnings ranging from $49.2 to $86 million, the thrift said. Indymac also highlighted what has been a stunning and fast transformation from an Alt-A powerhouse to primarily an agency-focused business — the company said it expects 85 percent of its total production to be eligible for sale to the GSEs and related agencies by the fourth quarter of 2007. Getting there, however, appears to mean that Indymac will have to hold a large portion of originated mortgages in the third quarter, as it said it expects to retain 32 percent of originated volume during the third quarter versus just 1 percent retained in portfolio during the second quarter of 2007. Update: Subsequent to its morning SEC filing, Indymac later released a press statement covering the expected problems during the third quarter, and said it expects to lay off 1,000 employees during the next few months.

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