Why there won’t be a housing crash in 2021
This week, HousingWire’s Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler interviews Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami. In this episode, the pair discuss three reasons why Mohtashami believes there won’t be a 2021 housing market crash.
For some background on the interview, here’s a summary of Mohtashami’s latest HousingWire article:
2020 came, and with it COVID-19. Five weeks into the crisis, demand in the U.S. housing market bottomed out and then after about nine weeks, began to climb again, with purchase applications making a full V-shaped recovery by early June. The housing bubble boys had those five glorious weeks when it finally looked like the market would succumb to their dire predictions of a housing crash. That is not much time to hawk a book, website, newsletter or what-have-you, but I guess one has to make hay where the sun don’t shine – or however that goes.
Now, in the first weeks of 2021, it’s like de ja vu all over again. Our friendly neighborhood bubble boys are hawking a 2021 housing crash, citing as evidence the moderation of some housing data metrics that inevitably follow parabolic increases. But they see these moderations back to trend as the harbingers of a housing crash that will send home prices back to 1996 levels in a short time.
Remember, all housing bubble boys have to believe that prices go back to the start of the original bubble, hence the marketing of housing bubble 2.0.
But it takes more than the housing data moderating back to trend to crash the market. Home prices would need to fall 68% to get back to the interim low. Considering where we are now, with home prices rising at the “too-fast” rate of over 6%, this seems unrealistic at best. But let’s put that aside for now and imagine what factors could come into play to crash the market based on historical precedent.
The Housing News podcast explores the most important topics happening in mortgage, real estate and fintech. Each week a new mortgage or real estate executive joins the show to add perspective to the top stories crossing HousingWire’s news desk. Hosted by Sarah Wheeler and produced by Alcynna Lloyd.
HousingWire articles covered in this episode: