This is what Logan Mohtashami thinks will move mortgage rates in 2021
October 21, 2020
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Today’s Daily Download episode features an interview with HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami. In this episode, Mohtashami discusses his recent article, which explains what factors are likely to drive mortgage rates in 2021.
For some background on the story, here’s a snippet of the article:
I’ve seen a number of articles lately predicting that mortgage rates will rise in 2021, a couple even from other HousingWire contributors. The rationale for these predictions have been erudite, multifactorial and complex. I am, on the other hand, a simple man. Most days I don’t even wear shoes. When I think about the direction of mortgage rates there is only one factor I consider – and that is economic growth.
Over the years I have professed that the rate of economic growth pretty much explains the whole lasagna so that should be the entire focus. When the economy gets better, bond yields rise and mortgage rates follow. When the economy slows, bond yields drop and mortgage rates follow. I expect mortgage rates in 2021 to stick to the same pattern.
The trick is to find a respectable range within each economic cycle. I started to incorporate bond yield forecasts for my yearly prediction articles and every year since 2015 I had said the same range. The 10-year yield would range between 1.60%-3%. In 2020, that range broke but continued a long-term downtrend in yields which started in 1981.
Before the 10-year yield broke below 1% this year, I wrote this year that if the U.S. went into a recession the 10-year would trade between -0.21% – 0.62%. On the morning of March 9, the 10-year traded at 0.34%. Since that low point, the 10-year yield has been above 0.62% for most of the time during the COVID recession. This has been a consistent strong indicator for me, that, despite all the drama in various sectors, the bond market expected the economy to improve.
The Daily Download examines the most compelling articles reported from the HousingWire newsroom. Each afternoon, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsroom that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted by the HW team and produced by Alcynna Lloyd and Victoria Wickham.
HousingWire articles covered in this episode:
