NAR’s Jessica Lautz Takes the Pulse of the Real Estate Industry

September 27, 2023

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President of Research at the National Association of REALTORS®, to talk about the big trends shaping the real estate industry.

Jessica shares why NAR expects home prices to edge up over the next year, talks about her model for forecasting mortgage rates (and whether we should expect 8% mortgage rates in the future), and surfaces some surprising trends about millennial homebuyers. She also offers insights from NAR’s study on Adaptive Reuse: how to turn empty office buildings into housing.

Here’s a glimpse into what you’ll learn:

Why NAR expects home prices to edge up over the next year
Which stats demonstrate demand has been greater than supply
Her model for forecasting mortgage rates
Whether we should expect 8% mortgage rates in the future
Why NAR uses surveys and focus groups in addition to tracking properties to gain insights into the market, and what they’re learning now
Surprising trends about millennial homebuyers
What the current household formation rate means for housing in the near future
Which stats she looks at that housing analysts don’t normally track
Insights from NAR’s study on Adaptive Reuse: how to turn empty office buildings into housing
The dangers of the TikTok housing analysts and why everyone keeps expecting a crash in home prices
NAR’s view on affordability and the future of housing affordability in the US, and her take on what housing looks like over the next decade

Related to this episode:

The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country – all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing – and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels.