Geoff Zimpfer and Logan Mohtashami on how the housing market recovered from COVID-19
September 15, 2020
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In today’s Daily Download episode, Mortgage Marketing Radio’s Geoff Zimpfer and HousingWire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami discuss whether or not the housing market has already recovered from COVID-19’s impact on the industry.
For some background on the interview, here’s a brief summary of Mohtashami’s latest article on the housing market’s V-shaped recovery:
The two most important factors that drive housing, demographics and mortgage rates are both in sweet spots to support housing. If you consider Millennials as potential replacement buyers, then add in downsizing Baby Boomers and move-up home buyers, we should see a lot of activity in the housing market in the coming months and years. Plus, we still have 15%-20% of market sales purchasing homes with cash each year.
We only need 4 million mortgage buyers a year to have a stable market and this is out of over 140 million people currently working – and the job market is still in recovery mode. It’s very rare to have any existing home sales print under 4 million in the 21st century. Typically this happens around events such as the last few months of the housing bubble crash, the aftermath of the pull forward demand from the homebuyer tax credit, and one month of COVID-19 induced sales. With mortgage rates safely under 4%, we have the cushion of low mortgage rates as well.
When one puts all this into perspective, I think we can agree, the worst of times are largely behind us for the housing market. It’s time to start looking at our future with caution as long as this virus is still with us. We can’t forget the housing bubble boys are ready for the 2021 forbearance home-price crash trolling game plan. Trust me when I say this, I’ve got a few tricks up my sleeve for them.
HousingWire articles covered in this episode:
