First American’s Mark Fleming on the housing market’s supply shortage

Today’s HousingWire Daily episode features an exclusive interview with First American’s Chief Economist Mark Fleming. In this episode, Fleming discusses his recent report that examines the U.S. housing market’s lack of housing inventory and why he believes this historic housing supply shortage is likely to continue into 2021. 

Here is a small preview of today’s interview with Fleming. The transcript below has been lightly edited for length and clarity:

HW: As this is something we’ve been looking at closely, let’s discuss housing supply, given how hot the housing market has been this year. Your report highlights that the average homeowner’s tenure length is at an all-time high of 10.5 years. How does tenure length impact would-be homebuyers, and are there any other factors to be considered?

Mark Fleming: The unfortunate truth is you can’t buy what’s not for sale. Supply inventory comes almost entirely from existing homeowners. If that existing homeowner chooses to stay in their home longer, the tenure length measures the amount of time people are not moving or selling their home. If there’s nothing to sell, there’s nothing to buy. Inventory is tight; tenure length is up, existing homeowners aren’t bringing their homes to market, so the potential first-time homebuyer has a really hard time finding something to buy. That then plays into house prices and becomes significant bidding wars for what is for sale, which escalates prices. We have to remember that house prices result from the supply and demand dynamic, but not something else. They’re a reflection of the imbalance. As the post’s title suggests, The Big Short is a significant shortage and historic shortage in housing in the United States today.

HousingWire Daily examines the most compelling articles reported from the HousingWire newsroom. Each afternoon, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsroom that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted by the HW team and produced by Alcynna Lloyd and Victoria Wickham.

HousingWire articles related to this episode:

• Increase in housing starts has construction playing catch-up
• Builder confidence reaches 35-year high in November
• Mortgage rates fall to another record low at 2.71%