Housing Market Tracker
Your weekly snapshot of U.S. housing trends from Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami, with expert analysis and real-time charts on key market indicators.
Lower mortgage rates pushed inventory lower in August
Year-over-year inventory growth has dropped from recent highs of 33% to 22%, despite mortgage rates not yet approaching 6%.
Charts
10-year Treasury yield
The 10-year Treasury yield shows the return investors earn from holding U.S. government debt for 10 years. It’s a key indicator of economic sentiment and a major driver of mortgage rate trends.
Mortgage Purchase Applications Index
The Mortgage Purchase Applications Index tracks the number of mortgage loan applications for home purchases across the U.S. It serves as a leading indicator of housing market activity, offering insights into trends in buyer demand and overall market conditions.
National Single Family Inventory
The National Single Family Inventory chart tracks the total number of single-family homes for sale across the U.S., providing a clear snapshot of housing supply trends over time. This data helps industry professionals, buyers, and sellers understand market conditions, inventory shifts, and potential pricing impacts.
Jobless Claims
Jobless claims, a leading labor market indicator, tracks the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits. This data is closely watched by the bond market and the Federal Reserve, as shifts in employment trends can influence mortgage rates and housing market stability.
New Listings
Weekly new single-family home listings in the U.S. reflect the pace of housing supply entering the market. Tracking this data helps identify shifts in seller activity, inventory trends and overall housing market conditions.
Price Reductions
The percent of U.S. homes with recent price reductions tracks the share of active listings that cut prices each week. It’s a key housing market indicator, revealing how sellers are responding to buyer demand, inventory levels, and mortgage rate pressure.
Pending Home Sales
Total pending home sales offer a real-time view into buyer demand, showing how many homes are under contract across the U.S. each week. This number signals market activity and buyer engagement, making it a key indicator of housing demand and future sales.
30-Year Mortgage vs 10-Year Treasury Spread
This chart illustrates the spread between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield — a key indicator of mortgage market risk and lender sentiment. Tracking this spread helps reveal shifts in borrowing costs and market confidence — wider spreads often mean higher risk and reduced affordability.
*Updated weekly, these charts highlight the key market indicators that Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami uses in his Housing Market Tracker to explain current trends and anticipate what’s next.
All Housing Market Tracker Articles
Are mortgage rate declines boosting housing demand yet?
Does a promising increase in purchase applications indicate that the housing market is beginning to wake up just in time for spring?
Do mortgage rates have room to drop lower?
Treasury Secretary Bessent said the housing market is about to "unfreeze." Can mortgage rates go even lower than we've seen since Jan. 14?
Can government job cuts lead to lower mortgage rates for spring?
Could the loss of jobs in the government sector significantly increase the unemployment rate and push mortgage rates lower this spring?
The impact of job cuts on the DC housing market
Is the Washington, D.C. housing market facing a sudden collapse ignited by DOGE’s job-cutting? We look at inventory and price cuts to see.
Better mortgage spreads are capping rates in 2025
Better mortgage spreads are limiting how high mortgage rates can rise in 2025, which is in contrast to what we've seen in recent years.
Mortgage rates stay calm before possible tariff enforcement
Last week, the housing data demonstrated stability even as we approached potential tariff enforcements starting on Saturday.
What can President Trump do to help the housing crisis?
In addition to the usual economic data, Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami looks at what President Trump could do to affect the housing market.
Why didn’t we see a national home-price correction in 2024?
Existing home sales ended the year on a positive note, but the surprise is that home prices firmed up late in the year
Mortgage rates fell last week. Can they go lower?
Mortgage rates fell last week after a brutal few months of rising rates. The question now is whether rates can keep going lower.
Housing demand positive, but at risk from higher mortgage rates
Our weekly pending contract data is still positive, but only by 1%, as demand growth has slowed amid higher mortgage rates.
Has spring housing demand already started?
I believe that spring demand actually started in November this year — a trend that's been evident in rising sales data.
The biggest mortgage rate stories of 2024
2024 was a disappointing year for those looking forward to a Fed rate cut cycle and what that could do to mortgage rates. Here's a recap!
Rising inventory is the most positive housing market story in 2024
The most positive development in the housing market over 2024 has been the increase in active housing inventory.
Housing market data positive despite Powell’s Grinch act
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell played the Grinch last week, but there are plenty of positive signals in the housing market data headed into 2025.
Housing demand resilient even with higher mortgage rates
Despite higher mortgage rates last week, housing demand is displaying some festive resilience as we are seeing a seasonal bounce.
