4 minute readOn the matter of clairvoyance and 2022 housing trends, it’s humbling to scan a late-innings work life and reflect on one of its central facts, a fact at least some like me tend to obscure from ourselves.
For example, in my chosen livelihood, the number of people who worked for me but who were much smarter better journalists than I am. That’s the fact.
One such person is Cheryl Russell, who once upon a time in the late-1990s, crossed paths with me in my career, and found herself, in a dotted-line-kind-of-way, reporting to me, ever so briefly.
Cheryl today is an accomplished author, a host of the ever-enlightening
More than half of the online gig workers said they wanted to save extra money or cover gaps in their incomes. Roughly six in 10 gig workers said the money they earned has been essential or important for meeting their basic needs.
Market-rate housing demand – as we know all too well – separates us by level of means or wherewithal into those who want from those who need, and those who want either currently have the means, or are on a demonstrable glide-path to getting there.
Behavior “for financial reasons” can tell us who’s on that glide-path, and who’s prone to slipping off it; we imaging more people in the next year or so sliding off the glide-path than getting onto it. For that reason, today, anyway, we’re thinking about those who were smarter in realizing various types of “writing on the wall” than we were.
Here, from the solid-gold archive of Cheryl Russell’s Demo Memo work, we’d ask you to look at both the headline and the details. They illustrate that trend-break point, where growth first stalls, then flattens, then falls. Sometimes, it’s a slow gentle curve to the negative. Others, it’s a free-fall.
Here’s how this begins, with 5 more in the link:
Ten Trends that Have Been Stopped
in Their Tracks…and What It Means
The economic downturn has not only emptied bank accounts and turned neighborhoods into ghost towns, it has derailed many of the demographic trends that businesses had been counting on for customers. Which trends will get back on track and which will be permanently detoured? Here’s what you can expect.
Births: Bye-Bye Boomlet. After rising robustly during the past few years, the annual number of births fell by 1.6 percent to 4,247,000 in 2008. A decline of this magnitude has occurred only once (in 1993) since the birth years of the baby-bust generation (Generation X) in the 1970s. What it means: The decline could be a blip as it was in 1993 or the start of another baby-bust generation.
Mobility: Pent-Up Demand. With the housing market in paralysis, the geographic mobility rate is at a historic low. Only 11.9 percent of Americans moved from one house to another between 2007 and 2008. The 4.7 million people who moved from state to state was the fewest since 1949-50, despite a more than doubling of the U.S. population. What it means: Expect to see a leap in the number of movers and the mobility rate when the housing market thaws.
Homeownership: Below the Peak. After reaching a record high of 69 percent in 2004, the homeownership rate fell to 67 percent in 2009 as foreclosures turned owners into renters. Because homeownership rises with age and peaks (at 83 percent) in the 65-to-74 age group, the rate should be rising–not falling–as boomers age. What it means: The aging of the population will prevent the homeownership rate from dropping much more.
Living Arrangements: Crowded Nest. The number of people who live alone fell by 510,000 between 2008 and 2009, the first decline since 1993. Behind the decline is the return of many young adults–unable to find jobs–to their parents’ home. According to the Pew Research Center, 19 percent of 45-to-54-year-olds with grown children have had an adult child move back home in the past year. What it means: More stress on the middle-aged backbone of the economy.
College: Enrollment Declines. You might have heard that college enrollment is at an all-time high despite the Great Recession–but not at traditional four-year schools. Those numbers peaked in 2005. Among full-time students at private four-year schools, enrollment in 2008 was 10 percent below the 2005 peak. In contrast, enrollment at two-year schools climbed 24 percent during those years. What it means: Trouble for private colleges.
Different times, yes. And enormously different household balance sheets than now. So we’ll see. I still think business measures and models are far more accurate on the way up than they are at detecting that all-important trend break.
