When you boil down structural household demand to a kitchen table, it’s got to look and sound a lot like this these days.

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Image courtesy of NAHB Eye On Housing

Part of the reason housing demand has decelerated is that 1st-time home buyers continue to retreat:  their share of all prospective buyers peaked at 65% in the third quarter of 2021, followed by three straight declines to reach the current 59% – its lowest point in almost two years (56% in the third quarter of 2020).

Confidence at that kitchen table level has taken a hit.

Uncertainty, one of humanity’s No. 1 motivators of hesitation, is still a growing storm. Yet, confidence, it turns out, works as its own source of greater confidence. It’s also an important part of the artillery in the war on inflation.

This makes it all the more important for homebuilders to keep eyes on the prize, people at their kitchen tables. The more builders succeed in stabilizing and eventually restoring payment power at that level – by doubling-down on price and value creation adaptability – the sooner we all cross that bridge to a market ahead that everyone knows will be bursting again with buoyant demand.

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