The 25-year housing surge and why the boom is just beginning

The $84 trillion wealth transfer

Think of it like this: after World War II, the GI Bill and new suburban construction launched one of the greatest wealth-building periods in U.S. history. Today, we’re about to witness something even larger.

Boomers and the Silent Generation are poised to pass down more than $80 trillion in wealth over the next two decades. Much of it will arrive as inheritances, down-payment gifts, and all- cash purchases. That flow of capital accelerates homeownership for Millennials and Gen Z, while keeping liquidity circulating through the market.

Agents: are you positioned to work with the millions of first-time buyers who will suddenly have parental cash backing them?

Pent-up demand is everywhere

The median age of first-time homebuyers has climbed to a record 38 years old, up from 35 just a year ago and well above the late-20s norm of past decades signaling that affordability constraints are adding years to the timeline for entering the market.

As the NAR puts it, “the median first-time homebuyer has reached an all-time high age of 38 years old.”

Millions are waiting for affordability to improve. Demand isn’t gone, it’s stacked and waiting to be unleashed.

What happens when millions of households who’ve been forced to delay moving suddenly see rates dip or prices soften just enough to act? What if both of these things happen at once?

Lower mortgage rates unlock activity

A modest rate shift from 7% to the “5-handle” could boost buying power by roughly 10%. As rates ease, buyers currently sidelined will return, lifting transaction volume.

While affordability remains stretched — home prices have risen 60% since 2019, pushing the median U.S. price to $441,738 by mid-2025, with mortgage payments averaging over $2,570/ month. Signs of relief are emerging.

In April 2025, the median price of new single-family homes fell 2.0% year-over-year to $407,200. and 20% of resale listings have undergone price cuts, the highest level since 2016, according to Reuters.

In Q2 2025, Reuters reported that mortgage lending surged with nearly 1.76 million residential loans issued (+19.4% from Q1, +6.3% YoY), totaling $601.7 billion in volume (+22.8% quarter-over-quarter, +10.3% YoY). Even “marginal rate improvements” sparked lending growth across 201 of 212 metros — proof that when financing costs shift, buyers move.

This combination of moderating rates, price adjustments, and lending rebound sets the stage for a gradual affordability recovery.

Millennials are just getting started

Millennials — the largest adult generation in U.S. history — number approximately 73 million.

In 2025, 52% of them intend to purchase a home, amounting to over 38 million prospective buyers — or about 20–25 million home-buying decisions, depending on household structure.

Example: Meet Sarah, 33, a Millennial teacher with two kids. She’s been renting for years, waiting for mortgage rates to dip below 6%. With $40,000 from her parents, she’s ready to buy. Multiply Sarah by 38 million and you see why the demand wave is unstoppable.

This cohort will be the backbone of housing demand for the next 15 years.

Gen Z will be even bigger

Gen Z, at around 69 million strong in the U.S., is even more eager: 67% plan to purchase a home in 2025, according to Newsweek.

That equates to nearly 46 million potential buyers, or roughly 25–30 million home buying decisions.

What happens when nearly 50 million Gen Z buyers all want in at the same time? A multi-decade wave of demand is ready to launch in the 2030s and beyond.

Boomers will both buy and sell

Boomers still control the majority of U.S. housing wealth. As they retire, downsize, or relocate closer to family, they’ll both supply new listings to an inventory-starved market and drive demand for age-friendly, single-story, low-maintenance homes. Their activity alone sustains millions of annual transactions.

Lifestyle-driven shifts are emerging too: rural and off-grid demand has surged, with mortgage applications in rural areas up 80% since the pandemic began. Rural home list prices have grown 64% since 2019, outpacing metros (+42%) — yet rural homes remain ~14% more affordable Newsweek.

Undersupply creates a long runway

Despite recent building, the U.S. remains short by 3.5–4.7 million homes — a record high shortage as of July 2025.

Even with strong builder momentum — 1.43 million annualized housing starts in July 2025, including a 2.8% jump in single-family starts — output is still far below the 2 million per year pace needed to close the gap.

Lending data confirms demand pushing against supply: Indianapolis (+70.8%), Boston, San Jose, and Buffalo were among metros seeing the biggest jumps in purchase activity in Q2 2025. Yet purchase lending overall was still down about 5% year-over-year, underscoring that while buyers are activated, affordability challenges remain Reuters.

On the surface, the July 2025 new home sales figure (652K annualized) wasn’t terribly exciting. But the inventory of new homes for sale rose 7.3% to 499K units. Of that, 121K (about 24%) were already completed — the highest level since August 2009. That’s 2.2 months’ worth of sales just sitting there.

Builders are also getting more creative about how they move inventory. Lennar, one of the nation’s largest builders, recently launched an Investor Marketplace, allowing them to sell new homes (with bundled financing) directly to mom-and-pop landlords. Buyers may even filter by cap rate and potential ROI — a striking shift that shows how builders are widening the pool of potential owners.

This entrenched undersupply guarantees years of elevated construction activity and firm prices. Builders are already leaning into smaller homes, townhomes, and build-for-rent projects to meet the demand.

The American Dream still means homeownership

Poll after poll confirms it: owning a home remains the No. 1 aspiration of Americans. Unlike stocks or crypto, a home delivers pride, identity, and stability. That cultural pull ensures that once affordability allows, buyers come back.

But beyond sentiment, the financial advantages are profound. As the Aspen Institute reports, the median net worth of homeowners is around $400,000, compared to just $10,400 for renters — a disparity of nearly 40 times.

An even sharper picture emerges at the individual level. A 2025 analysis shows the average net worth for homeowners is $430,000, compared to only $10,000 for renters — meaning a typical homeowner’s net worth is 43× greater than that of a renter AP News.

Projections show decades of strength

We modeled U.S. home sales through 2045 using Census household forecasts, Harvard JCHS growth data, and NAR/Census run-rates. The results are clear:

That’s ~115M–129M transactions over two decades — steady, sustainable volume with no crash in sight.

In the shorter term, the NAR projects existing-home sales will climb 7% to 12% in 2025, with mortgage rates averaging around 6%.

Bonus point: The rising demand for real estate agents

More sales mean more professionals will be needed to guide buyers and sellers. Our projections suggest:

That’s a 20–45% expansion in workforce demand over the next decade. At the same time, many older agents are retiring, creating natural turnover. ATTOM’s lending data shows purchase activity rose in 97% of metro areas in Q2 2025 — particularly Washington, DC (+35.4%), Chicago (+28.1%), Los Angeles (+23.4%), and Houston (+17.6%) Reuters. That means not just more transactions, but more opportunities for skilled agents in every major region.

The real growth opportunity isn’t just numbers — it’s about developing the next generation of agents who are better trained, tech-enabled, and team-supported.

For brokerages and leaders, this is the recruiting and coaching opportunity of a lifetime.

Public policy may join the accelerants

While this article has focused on demographic and economic fundamentals, it’s worth noting that public policy may join the accelerants.

Recent reports show that the current administration is considering declaring a national housing emergency this fall, an extraordinary step meant to address the twin challenges of high prices and limited supply.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described it as an “all-hands-on-deck” moment and suggested that simplifying permitting, standardizing zoning codes, and offering tariff exclusions on building materials are all on the table as part of an affordability push.

If implemented, these actions could speed up supply, reduce costs, and align public policy with the fundamental forces already pointing to a multi-decade boom.

The bottom line

The U.S. housing market isn’t collapsing. It’s preparing for its biggest expansion in history.

• Millennials and Gen Z will guarantee decades of demand.
• Boomers will release inventory and reshape product types.
• Lower mortgage rates, lending surges, equity-rich owners, and potential federal action will unlock sidelined buyers.
• The American Dream ensures homeownership remains non-negotiable.
• Projections show 5.5M–7M annual sales as the new normal for the next 20 years.

Alongside, the agent workforce must grow by 20–45% — a once-in-a-generation recruiting window.

This isn’t wishful thinking. It’s demographics, math, lending data, policy momentum, and culture aligning.

The crash-callers will keep shouting. But demographic force, equity, and policy action all converge in one direction: up. The only question is — will you ride the wave, or miss it?

Tim and Julie Harris are award-winning real estate coaches with over 30 years of experience. They host the nation’s #1 daily podcast for real estate professionals, “Real Estate Coaching Radio,” and are best-selling authors of “HARRIS Rules.”

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners.

To contact the editor responsible for this piece: tracey@hwmedia.com.