Sneak Peak: As Sales Top Out, Signs Of Softening Multiply

Extreme swings of the pendulum correct back toward the mean,” says Jay McKenzie, senior director, Builders Digital Experience (BDX). “The BDX National New Home Search Index clearly shows a transition to a more balanced market: 11 weeks of decline W-o-W in the volume of consumer search online for newly built homes and the Y-o-Y gap continuing to shrink.

Now, back to our thought about “all things being equal.”

They never are, but almost always appear to be.

Housing’s cycles are nothing so much as apparent confirmation that “all things being equal” make the rules of housing’s behavior. Fundamental demographics has been a constant driver of the need, the desire, and ultimately, the buying behavior.

As a matter of fact, one business leader we spoke with this week feels a sense of deja vu in the market dynamics of the moment – rumblings of inflation, rising interest rates, market uncertainty, etc. It takes him back to the late-1980s-early 1990s.

“The Millennials are right where we were then,” he says. “I bought my first condo with 3% down 30 years ago or so – high interest rates, spiralling inflation and all the rest. That was the Baby Boom, and we have barely scratched the surface of the Millennial generation’s impact.”

So, “all things being equal,” the structural drivers look better than good for a decade or more. But what if, as generational experts are beginning to reckon with,” Millennials become a first.