National home prices won’t turn positive until 2012: MacroMarkets

National home prices will not increase from the previous year until the fourth quarter of 2012, according to a panel of economists surveyed by MacroMarkets, a financial technology company. The survey was compiled from 110 responses in December, and it is based upon the projected path of the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller national home price index over the next five years. According to the survey, home prices in the fourth quarter of 2010 will show a 1.13% drop from a year ago, but will begin to stabilize. At the end of 2011, prices are expected to remain 0.17% below where they will be at the end of this year. But by the close of 2012, prices will have begun its long journey to recovery, increasing nearly 2% from 2011, according those surveyed. By 2015, prices will be increasing by more than 3.5% from the previous year. On a micro-level, home prices are expected to increase in 40% of local markets in 2011, another technology firm, Veros Real Estate Solutions, said Wednesday. Robert Shiller, who co-founded MacroMarkets and remains its chief economist, said less than 3% of those surveyed expected a negative change in 2015. The 3.7% increase expected in that year would be higher than the average annual rate of increases before the bubble. MacroMarkets Managing Director Terry Loebs said the survey consistently points to price stability in the intermediate and long-term. However, he stressed that the recovery will be long road. “Weak market fundamentals persist and continue to gnaw at wealth and confidence in these uncharted, post-bubble waters,” Loebs said. Write to Jon Prior.