A year after the National Association of Realtors (NAR) settlement, commissions were supposed to fall. Consumers were supposed to have choices. Agents were supposed to negotiate more openly. On paper, it all looked promising. In practice? Almost nothing changed. Commissions actually rose from a year earlier.

The silence in the industry isn’t confusion, it’s relief. Margins didn’t move. The power structure that benefits a select few remained untouched. 

The referral fee engine

At the center of it all is the quiet engine that runs real estate: referral fees. Even though they appear in only a fraction of transactions, they act as the tollbooth that sets the value of a customer, raising acquisition costs for everyone else. 

Portals, brokers and even “trusted voices” like Dave Ramsey, take their cut. A closed deal can be worth up to 40% of an agent’s commission, or $10,000–$12,000 on a $1 million home, just for an introduction. Zillow thrives on free brand traffic, while everyone else pays $2,000–$3,000 per customer to compete. That moat is why new ideas never pencil.

Why there’s no price competition

Consumers never see the effect of those fees. According to NAR, three out of four buyers hire the very first agent they meet. Portals reinforce this dynamic by funneling each shopper to a single “preferred” choice. There’s no click-to-compare, no real way to weigh options side by side. 

With customers valued at up to $12K, there is no incentive for anyone in the chain to lower commissions. The funnel protects the tolls. When there’s only one lane, the driver pays whatever the operator sets.

Agents as expendable labor

It’s not just portals. NAR funds the largest lobbying machine in the country with agent dues and every agent pays the same, whether they sold 30 homes last year or none at all. An actual majority of its members close no deals, yet they still pay in. That war chest doesn’t protect the struggling majority; it protects the few who benefit most from the status quo.

Brokerages hire agents by the dozen because it costs nothing. Most never gain traction, many join as a side hustle. Quality suffers, but membership rises and that’s what matters. Nearly half of agents exit the industry within five years, according to NAR’s 2025 Member Profile and broader industry reports, with 62% of new agents earning under $10,000 annually.

On teams, agents are often expected to work for free upfront, shouldering risk with no guarantee of pay. When they finally do close a deal, a massive share has already been promised away. The system relies on wide-eyed recruits chasing the dream of a homerun commission check. Most flame out quickly.

Survivors cling to high prices. After giving free labor, every commission must be maximized. Many would prefer steady pay for steady work. Redfin proves there’s no shortage of agents willing to work as employees for steady pay and benefits, but traditional brokers don’t want that model. It would collapse margins, kill the myth of the mega-producer, and force consolidation. Better to preserve the dream than face the math.

The power players

Meanwhile, the biggest companies are leaning in. Rocket, the country’s largest mortgage lender, is doubling down on referral fees as a competitive weapon. Portals and mega-brokers are happy to keep stacking tolls on top of already high commissions.

And the system forces agents to feed it. NAR and local MLSs require every agent to surrender their listings into databases that ultimately fuel portals like Zillow. Agents create the data, but they don’t control it and the portals turn around and sell it back to them at 40%. Compass has gone the other direction, hoarding its own exclusive inventory. Two opposite strategies, same conclusion: agents and sellers create the data, yet the industry takes control and monetizes it against them.

Zillow has moved beyond aggregating listings. Today, they dictate listing standards and enforce their own rules. Compass may sue, but consumer eyeballs and seller behavior bend to Zillow’s terms. Zillow owns the consumer. The industry controls the agents. And agents themselves control almost nothing.

Why nothing changed

The settlement moved paperwork, not economics. Buyers now sign contracts earlier. MLSs stopped publishing offers, but the money didn’t move. Referral fees still define the value chain. Attention still starts with portals. Consumers still don’t shop, and agents remain trapped in a model where free labor feeds inflated commissions.

The truth is, the system is carefully designed to prevent price pressure. Portals sell introductions at a premium. NAR collects dues regardless of agent productivity. Brokerages take their splits. Conferences elevate the same top producers to talk about “buying better leads” or “the next pipeline filler.” Every player who matters is aligned around keeping the river of commissions flowing at today’s levels.

The bug zapper

For new agents, the model is irresistible but deadly. High margins draw them in like moths to a bug zapper. They pay their dues, chase a few leads, maybe spend money on coaching, and most burn out. Those who last adapt to the rules, not the market.

The churn is built into the model. In fact, it sustains it. Each new wave of hopefuls adds fresh dues to the lobbying machine and fresh dollars to an entire industry of vendors, from lead sellers to motivational gurus, all ready to sell the dream of success. Veterans at the top don’t complain and their voices are the only ones heard, amplified by the industry infrastructure built to keep them there.

The industry’s Achilles heel

The giants of real estate have money, brand, and lobbying on their side. They dictate terms, set the rules, and have reduced agents to pawns in the game.

But even the strongest giant has an Achilles heel. This industry survives on referral fees and forced data sharing, a model that only works so long as agents keep surrendering control. They provide the data, labor, and dues, only to see them monetized against them.

A glimmer of hope emerges where transparency begins to shift the balance. Take the Northwest MLS in Seattle, which has begun to prioritize in-system clarity, introducing standalone referral-fee disclosures in June 2025. Buyers and sellers see fees upfront, challenging the hidden tolls that prop up the status quo — offering some daylight to new models that can benefit consumers. 

Real change won’t come from lawsuits or by shuffling paperwork into new forms. It will come when agents stop feeding the tollbooth, when consumers see they have options beyond the funnel, and when new models make it possible for agents to reduce risk and win clients directly.

The settlement didn’t topple the system, but it cracked the door open. It made it acceptable to talk about alternatives, to debate referral fees, and to imagine a world where agents and consumers aren’t captive to tolls. That conversation matters. If agents mobilize around better models, they can redirect the audience that sustains Zillow’s empire.

Zillow’s 227 million monthly visitors don’t belong to Zillow. They belong to whoever gives them the best reason to engage. If agents become the swarm that blocks out the sun, they can take back control of their future, and once the audience moves, the power moves with it.

Real change hinges on exposing new levers to redirect attention and reward value. The industry’s next move could redefine who holds the reins, and maybe it’s closer than we think.

Dean DiCarlo is the CEO of Homing.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners. To contact the editor responsible for this piece: zeb@hwmedia.com.

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