Image courtesy of NAHB Eye on Housing

If you look at the “percent of builders using sales incentives to bolster sales or limit cancellations” in late 2005 and early 2006, you’ll see levels quite comparable to that which has gone on over the past few months.

So, while we don’t know what 2023 and 2024 will look like yet, the need to “clear” more than 350,000 new completed and under construction homes in the next several months will set the rules for describing, comparing, and contrasting the 2022-23 cycle versus any other.

What would not surprise us in the least would be that, when we one-day look back at what ultimately happened beginning in early 2022 and continuing well into the next year, maybe more, someone may use Hemingway’s line one more time to describe how it all went down.

Gradually then suddenly.”