Many economists are predicting the next recession could occur in 2020 or even 2019, but that’s not what Goldman Sachs is predicting.
In an interview with CNBC, Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin said he does not expect a recession will occur that soon.
“Our view at Goldman Sachs is that’s unlikely to be the case, but there’s some risk around that,” Kostin said. “Certainly there’s a possibility you could be in recession [in 2020], and therefore the market would trade on that, but the broad central case is that we’re not and the economy continues to grow at a decelerating rate in ’19-‘20.”
Nearly half of experts recently surveyed by Zillow said they expect the next recession to begin sometime in 2020, according to the company’s Home Price Expectations Survey, a quarterly survey of more than 100 real estate experts and economists.
About 48% of those surveyed said the recession would begin in 2020, and 22% said they expect it to begin in the first quarter of that year.
Former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke also predicted an upcoming recession, saying it is less than two years away, and the U.S. economy will “go off the cliff,” in 2020.
Goldman Sachs is currently forecasting a 30% risk of recession by 2020.
However, Kostin did point out what he sees as three near-term concerns: Tariffs, labor inflation and the pressure on margins and higher rates.
So far, the Fed has raised rates three times in 2018 – the first time in March, again in June and finally in September. It is expected to raise rates a final time this year in December.
But after that is where experts disagree. Capital Economics forecasts the Fed will slow down its rate hikes in 2019 and even reverse course and cut rates in 2020. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed still has five rate hikes to go.
But despite these concerns, Kostin insisted that the U.S. economic fundamentals remain pretty strong.
What’s not a concern? President Donald Trump’s negative comments on Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell, according to Kostin. Sources inside the White House have even gone so far as to say Trump is disappointed with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for his role in helping choose Powell as Federal Reserve chair. But Kostin said the Fed will continue to remain independent and these comments should not concern economists as they will not affect the Fed’s decision-making.
Watch the interview below:
Recession unlikely in 2020, says Goldman Sachs strategist from CNBC.
