MacroMarkets LLC released their Home Price Expectations Survey for March 2011 which complied a survey of 111 responses from a wide ranging group of economists, real estate experts, investment and market strategists. The survey utilized the projected path developed by the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index for the next five years. Due to weak performance in the last the quarter of 2010, more experts are expressing concerns that the market is trending towards a double-dip in home prices.
Robert Shiller, MacroMarkets co-founder and chief economist said, “Overall, the sentiment among our expert panel regarding the U.S. housing market outlook continues to deteriorate. Now they are expecting only a weak recovery, and even that is not until 2013. This uninspiring view must be influenced by the persistently weak market fundamentals – high unemployment, supply overhang, an unabated foreclosure crisis, and constrained mortgage credit.”
Between December and March, the percentage of experts predicting a double-dip occurring in 2011 has increase from 15% to 50%. None of the experts expected to see national home prices recover to the pre-bubble trend within the next five years.
Government stimulus programs apparently fueled temporary gains, but as they expired have led to a "double dead cat bounce" that many experts see as a sign of continued weakness in the housing market.
The survey of experts was conducted between March 1 through March 15.
