Valuations provider Veros predicts that housing market values will continue their upward trend in 2018 and that Washington state will dominate the market.
The company’s latest VeroFORECAST, which covers the 12-month period ending December 1, 2018, shows that residential market values will continue their overall upward trend during the next 12 months, with overall annual forecast appreciation of 4.2% which is higher than the company’s third quarter forecast appreciation of 4%. Additionally, only 3% of markets are expected to depreciate, which is the same as last quarter’s forecast.
“Our Q4 VeroFORECAST is continuing to show the market as very strong for the overall U.S. residential real estate market,” says Eric Fox, VP of statistical and economic modeling at Veros. “Washington State is set to boom– occupying all of the Top 5 market spots.”
Never has one state held all of the top 5 spots in the forecast. The Seattle, Bellingham, Bremerton, Kennewick and Mount Vernon markets make up the Top 5 in Veros’ report.
“This has never happened before with one state occupying all of the top positions. Seattle is No. 1 with expected appreciation of over 12% followed by other Washington markets of Bellingham, Bremerton, Kennewick, and Mount Vernon all near 10%. These markets show no signs of letting up as supply of homes is exceedingly low and population continues to grow.”
The Northwest, in particular, is where the levels of appreciation are the strongest.
“Metro areas in Colorado, Idaho, Oregon and Washington comprise the remaining metro areas in the Top 10. If you want strong appreciation, move to the Northwest portion of the U.S.,” Fox said.
On the flip side, 12 of the bottom 25 markets are on the other side of the country, in the Northeastern states of Connecticut, New Jersey, Maine, West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New York.
Veros reports that Bangor, Maine, is forecast to be the worst performing market with 2% depreciation with the markets of Bridgeport, Longview, Vineland, and Atlantic City forecast to have 1% depreciation over the coming year.
“Unfortunately, the fundamentals of these markets remain static with flat or declining populations and relatively high unemployment rates,” Fox explains. “These factors contribute to a high housing supply with low demand that are unlikely to change anytime soon.”
There are interesting trends emerging with Veros’ latest forecast. Segments of California are seeing an increase in forecast appreciation, while some Texas markets are softening, according to Fox.
“Parts of California are starting to see an uptick in forecast appreciation with top performing markets such as San Diego, San Jose, Los Angeles, and Sacramento expected to have appreciation from 7.5% to 8% which is up from 6.5% to 7.5% from the last update.” Fox continued, “Also, many Texas markets are softening with Dallas and Austin losing 1% in forecast appreciation since the last update.”
