The Federal Reserve is expected increase mortgage rates up to three or four times in 2018, which could push 30-year mortgage rates up past 4% in 2018.

As mortgage rates usually follow the Treasury Yield, the federal funds rate sets the tone for the direction mortgage rates will take.

The Mortgage Bankers Association predicted mortgage rates will increase, but they will stay below 5%.

“The Federal Reserve has begun reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and mortgage backed securities, and this will put additional, modest upward pressure on mortgage rates,” MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said. “We expect that the 10-Year Treasury rate will stay below 3% through the end of 2018, and 30-year mortgage rates will stay below 5%.”

The MBA predicts rates will increase to 4.6% in 2018, 5% in 2019 and 5.3% in 2020.

The National Association of Realtors’ forecast was similar, saying it expects interest rates to end the year at 4.5%.

Realtor.com held a slightly higher outlook, saying mortgage rates will average 4.6% throughout the year, and reach 5% by the end of 2018.

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