According to James Saft in a column with Reuters, one of two things can happen in the coming days: the Fed will say they need more and better data before they begin tapering or the Fed will start tapering its asset purchases in September. But what you are not likely to hear is that tapering needs to happen. Here is Saft's take on it:
It would be hard for the Fed to say it is tapering because bond buying hasn't worked that well, and that the risks – of bubbles on the way up and market dislocation on the way out – look like they may outweigh the potential benefits. Central banks don't like to sound like they are being forced into a position, and no one likes admitting that a gambit has not paid off.
The truth probably is that the taper is good risk management, needs to happen, but will be painful. Don't expect those words to come out of Bernanke's mouth, or his successor's.
